In view of very recent events, what is the likelihood of the current existing Trump administration giving diplomatic recognition to the Republic of China (Taiwan), i.e. a two China policy?
As of my last knowledge update in October 2023, there hasn't been any official declaration or indication that the Biden administration (which succeeded Trump's administration) would adopt a "two China policy" or formally recognize the Republic of China (Taiwan) as a separate entity from the People's Republic of China (PRC). The U.S. maintains a policy of "strategic ambiguity" regarding Taiwan, which is designed to deter aggression from China while also not formally recognizing Taiwan as an independent state.
The likelihood of any administration, including Trump if he were to return to office in the future, fully embracing a formal diplomatic recognition of Taiwan would depend on various factors, including geopolitical tensions with China, domestic political considerations, and the response of international allies.
Given the complex nature of U.S.-China relations, any significant shift in policy would likely come with severe ramifications, not only for U.S.-China relations but also for regional security dynamics in East Asia. A "two China" policy would be quite controversial and could provoke a strong reaction from Beijing, making it a sensitive issue for any administration.
For the most accurate and up-to-date information, monitoring current news sources and official statements from the U.S. government would be necessary.